Labour and National have both dropped in the latest Taxpayers’ Union–Curia poll, while NZ First and the Greens are on the rise.

Labour leads with 31.2% (-2.6 points), just ahead of National on 29.6% (-3.5).

The Greens climb to 12.0% (+1.3), and NZ First jumps to 10.6% (+2.5), crossing the 5% threshold needed to return to Parliament.

ACT holds steady at 6.6%, Te Pāti Māori edges up to 4.4%.

The centre-left bloc (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori) would hold 61 seats, enough to govern.

The centre-right (National, ACT, NZ First) falls to 59.

Chris Hipkins rises to 20.9% as Preferred Prime Minister, overtaking Christopher Luxon on 19.8%.

Taxpayers’ Union spokesman James Ross says the numbers show “a vote of no confidence” in the major parties, with voters still focused on the cost of living and the economy.

“”Cost of living and the economy are still voters’ major concerns. With the finest of margins between the left and right blocs, tackling these will be key as we head into election year.”