There have been no reported cases of COVID-19 in the South Island since the Auckland outbreak started – so could the South Island see any level changes when the Prime Minister makes an announcement tomorrow? Chris Lynch asked experts for their thoughts.

COVID-19 Modeller Professor Michael Plank from the School of Mathematics and Statistics at Canterbury University said the reason the rest of New Zealand is at level 2 was that “there’s a risk that a case could leak out of Auckland.”

He said, “thousands of essential workers cross the Auckland boundary each day, including to transport essential supplies to the South Island.”

“If a case popped up in an area that was at level 1, it could cause an explosive outbreak that could set the whole country back to square one. Level 2 gives some safeguards that reduce the risk of big superspreading events.” 

“Level 1 is for when we are confident there is no community transmission of Covid-19 anywhere in the country.  That’s not currently the case and so I think the rest of New Zealand will stay at level 2 this week – though there may be some easing of the restrictions, e.g. gathering sizes.”

New Zealand immunologist Graham Le Gros, who is the Director of the Malaghan Institute of Medical Research in Wellington, said although there has not been any reported cases in the South Island recently, while there are still cases of COVID19 infection occurring in Auckland the South Island is still completely vulnerable to having an outbreak of delta, by any of the people travelling from Auckland.

“The only time the South Island can be really secure is when its vaccination rate hits the 90% mark.”

So what will need to be taken into consideration for Cabinet to make a decision to reduce alert levels? Graham Le Gros said it will depend on the level of vaccination in highly vulnerable communities, Maori, Pacific and over 65’s and the level of vaccination in the general population.

He said it will also depend on the level of resilience left in the economy and small businesses to further levels of shutdown that prevent business activity, the level of non-covid19 health issues that start to become apparent, eg. Mental, check-ups and maintenance of medications, early diagnosis of conditions, impact on schooling and societal well being.  All these are well beyond a scientist’s training to comment and should be left to our elected politicians.”

“There is still a considerable risk that delta could leak from the Auckland outbreak, and Level 2 would help contain such an outbreak so it does not overwhelm the South Island. Once the South Island is fully immunised it could go down levels.”