National has lost a substantial share of its party vote across Canterbury, with the party recording declines in every electorate compared with the 2023 general election.

An analysis of the Electoral Commission’s preliminary results from Saturday’s election shows National suffered its biggest losses in Selwyn and Waimakariri, two electorates where it has traditionally enjoyed strong support.

Labour increased its share of the party vote in seven of the ten electorates examined, while the Greens experienced a more mixed result, losing ground in several Christchurch seats despite improving their nationwide vote.

The figures reveal a shift in Canterbury’s political landscape, although National remains the largest party in several provincial and rural electorates.

Selwyn recorded National’s biggest decline, with its party vote falling from 49.27 percent in 2023 to 36.53 percent, a drop of 12.74 percentage points.

Labour increased its share by 2.95 points to 21.06 percent, while the Greens slipped slightly to 8.38 percent.

However National MP Nicola Grigg comfortably retained the seat.

In Waimakariri, National’s party vote fell by 9.09 percentage points to 33.51 percent, while Labour increased its share by 0.86 points to 25.01 percent.

National also lost ground in Rangitata, where its share dropped by 8.32 points to 36.37 percent.

Labour’s result there was virtually unchanged at 26.21 percent, suggesting National’s losses did not translate into a corresponding increase in support for its main rival.

The pattern was also evident in Christchurch.

In Ilam, National’s party vote declined by 7.87 points to 35.18 percent, while Labour increased its share by 3.46 points to 25.37 percent.

The Greens fell by 2.38 points to 12.54 percent.

Despite the decline in National’s party vote, Hamish Campbell retained Ilam with a substantial majority.

Christchurch Central delivered one of the most significant changes.

National won the party vote there in 2023 with 31.11 percent, ahead of Labour on 28.49 percent.

This year, Labour moved into first place with 32.15 percent, while National dropped to 23.32 percent.

That represents a decline of 7.80 percentage points for National and a gain of 3.66 points for Labour.

The Greens remained a political force in the electorate, attracting 18.62 percent of the vote, although that was 0.81 points below their 2023 result.

Labour also improved its position in Christchurch East, increasing its share by 2.54 points to 36.73 percent.

National fell by 7.09 points to 21.46 percent, while the Greens increased their support by 0.96 points to 15.42 percent.

Wigram produced Labour’s strongest improvement among the electorates examined.

Its party vote increased by 4.10 percentage points to 33.64 percent, while National fell by 6.28 points to 28.92 percent.

The result reversed the position in 2023, when National attracted more party votes than Labour despite Labour holding the electorate seat.

The Greens experienced their largest Canterbury decline in Wigram, dropping by 2.88 points to 11.92 percent.

Banks Peninsula also shifted in Labour’s favour.

Labour increased its party vote by 1.36 points to 27.89 percent, overtaking National, which fell by 5.93 points to 25.90 percent.

The Greens attracted 17.87 percent, down 1.75 points from 2023.

The result accompanied Labour’s success in reclaiming the electorate seat, with Tracey McLellan defeating National’s Vanessa Weenink.

Further south, National lost 6.77 percentage points in Waitaki, where its share fell to 36.44 percent.

Labour also lost ground, declining by 1.39 points to 20.07 percent, while the Greens increased their share by 0.55 points to 9.55 percent.

In Kaikōura, National fell by 6.37 points to 34.56 percent, Labour slipped by 0.35 points to 20.28 percent, and the Greens were virtually unchanged at 7.81 percent.

The Green Party’s Canterbury performance contrasts with its nationwide result.

Nationally, the Greens increased their share of the vote from 11.60 percent in 2023 to 13.30 percent in Saturday’s preliminary count.

But across the ten Canterbury electorates examined, the party improved its share in only four, with its strongest gains occurring in Christchurch East and Waitaki.

National, meanwhile, suffered a decline in every electorate, although the scale of those losses varied considerably.

Its nationwide party vote fell from 38.06 percent in 2023 to 29.21 percent in this year’s preliminary count.

Labour’s national share increased from 26.91 percent to 29.36 percent.

Labour has not captured all the support National has lost. The results in Rangitata, Waitaki and Kaikōura show that National’s decline has occurred even where Labour’s vote remained largely unchanged or fell.

The figures also demonstrate the distinction between party support and individual electorate candidates.

National MPs Nicola Grigg, Matt Doocey and James Meager comfortably retained their respective seats in Selwyn, Waimakariri and Rangitata, despite their party recording declines in each electorate.

The analysis compares the official 2023 election results with the preliminary figures from Saturday’s vote. Changes are measured in percentage points rather than percentages of the previous vote.

The comparison also needs to be considered alongside changes to electorate boundaries since 2023.

Approximately 399,000 special votes have yet to be included in the nationwide count, meaning the results could change.

The Electoral Commission is expected to release the official results on 27 November.