Gerry Brownlee’s three decades in Parliament appear to be over, with the Christchurch politician and Speaker of the House unlikely to return following National’s disappointing election result.

Brownlee, who entered Parliament in 1996 and went on to become one of the country’s longest serving MPs, has been caught out by an unusual election result that has left National with no list seats.

The party won 42 electorate seats but secured just 29.21 per cent of the party vote, leaving several senior politicians, including Brownlee, without a place in the next Parliament.

Brownlee, ranked ninth on National’s list, did not contest an electorate.

Speaking on election night, he acknowledged his political career appeared to be ending.

He said it “certainly doesn’t look like” he would be returning to Parliament and was considering retirement.

“I’ve got no regrets whatsoever,” he said.

For Christchurch, his departure would mark the end of a political career closely associated with some of the city’s most difficult years.

A former secondary school teacher, Brownlee entered Parliament after winning the Ilam electorate for National at the 1996 election.

He held the seat for 24 years, becoming a familiar figure in Christchurch politics and a senior member of successive National governments.

His most prominent role came following the Canterbury earthquakes.

Appointed Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery in September 2010, Brownlee was responsible for overseeing the Government’s response to the disaster and the enormous rebuilding programme that followed.

He became one of the most recognisable faces of Christchurch’s recovery, overseeing major decisions on damaged infrastructure, central city redevelopment and the future of  red zones.

Brownlee remained responsible for earthquake recovery until April 2016, before taking on the Greater Christchurch Regeneration portfolio.

His political career extended well beyond Canterbury.

He served as Minister of Energy and Resources, Economic Development, Transport, Defence and Foreign Affairs during the National governments led by John Key and Bill English.

He was also Leader of the House for more than eight years, responsible for managing the Government’s business in Parliament.

Brownlee’s long hold on Ilam ended in 2020 when Labour’s Sarah Pallett defeated him during Jacinda Ardern’s landslide election victory.

He remained in Parliament through National’s party list and subsequently decided not to contest Ilam again.

Following National’s return to government in 2023, Brownlee was elected Speaker of the House, taking up the position on 5 December that year.

As Speaker, he was responsible for maintaining order in Parliament, overseeing debates and ensuring MPs followed the rules of the House.

Although National won a substantial number of electorate contests, its share of the party vote fell sharply from the 38.08 per cent it received in 2023.

Under MMP, a party can retain electorate seats even when its party vote would otherwise entitle it to fewer MPs. In National’s case, that has left no room for candidates elected solely through its list.

Brownlee’s departure would be particularly significant given his long association with Christchurch and the influence he exercised over decisions affecting the city after the earthquakes.

His career has included periods in government and opposition, senior ministerial responsibilities, two terms as National’s deputy leader and nearly three years as Speaker.

He is currently Parliament’s longest continuously serving MP.

Approximately 399,000 special votes remain to be checked and counted, with the Electoral Commission due to release the official election results on 27 November.

If the result stands, Brownlee will leave Parliament 30 years after first winning Ilam, having served through ten Parliaments and some of the most consequential events in Christchurch’s recent history.