The latest Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll suggests the centre left bloc could form the next Government by the narrowest possible margin.

The poll shows Labour gaining 0.3 points to 34.4 percent, while National drops 2.9 points to 28.4 percent.

Support for the Greens rose 0.2 points to 10.5 percent, while New Zealand First dropped 0.8 points to 9.7 percent. ACT increased 0.8 points to 7.5 percent and Te Pāti Māori rose 0.3 points to 3.2 percent.

Under the projected seat numbers, the centre left bloc would hold 61 seats in Parliament, while the centre right would have 59.

Labour would hold 44 seats, up 1 from the previous poll. National would fall 3 seats to 36. The Greens and New Zealand First would both hold 13 seats, ACT would rise to 10 seats, and Te Pāti Māori would remain on 4.

Minor parties remained outside Parliament, with TOP on 1.9 percent, NZ Outdoors and Freedom on 1.7 percent, Vision NZ on 0.2 percent and the New Conservatives on 0.8 percent.

The results are compared with the February Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll, which suggested a hung Parliament.

Polling on key policy issues showed National leading on the economy and government spending.

Labour led on health, poverty, inflation, education, safety, housing, the environment, and on which party voters trusted not to increase taxes.

Taxpayers’ Union spokesman James Ross said the results confirmed the election race remains extremely tight.

“Yet again, this poll confirms that the election race is as close as it can be,” Ross said.

“The Government ought to be concerned with the issues Labour now lead on. It will shock National’s election strategists that more voters are picking Labour as more trusted not to put up your taxes.”

 

The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 01 March to Tuesday 03 March 2026. The median response was collected on Monday 02 March 2026.

The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 700 by phone and 300 by online panel.

A random selection of 10,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months. Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.