Canterbury has claimed the top spot in ASB’s latest Regional Economic Scoreboard for the first quarter of 2025, as a rural-led recovery helps power the South Island ahead of the rest of the country.
The quarterly report shows Canterbury, West Coast, Otago and Marlborough occupying the top four positions, with South Island regions continuing to outperform their North Island counterparts.
ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley said the results reflected the strength of rural New Zealand and the ongoing resilience of the food and fibre sector.
“The scoreboard is reflecting what many in the regions already know – rural New Zealand is doing the heavy lifting right now,” Tuffley said. “South Island regions are benefiting from strong commodity tailwinds and resilient export demand, especially across dairy, meat, forestry and horticulture.”
Canterbury’s top ranking is underpinned by solid gains across retail, housing and consumer confidence. Tuffley said rural strength was lifting broader economic sentiment throughout the region.
The West Coast delivered one of its best results in years, rising to second place due to strong construction activity and a retail recovery. Otago, which had led the scoreboard for several quarters, slipped to third, despite Queenstown’s continued tourism performance.
Minister for the South Island James Meager welcomed the result, calling it a “success story” that underscored the region’s vital role in New Zealand’s economic recovery.
“The ASB Regional Scoreboard data is an absolute success story for the South Island and is proof of the enormous contribution it makes to our national GDP – and the huge potential there is for even greater growth,” Meager said.
“It’s fantastic to see Canterbury in the top spot for the first quarter of 2025, where rural strength is boosting confidence and aiding recovery across retail and housing. It’s no wonder people are queuing to move there.”
“I was delighted to see the West Coast surge to second place and nab its best result in four years, which highlights how the South Island is being viewed as an attractive place to build and invest in across the board.”
In contrast, Wellington remains stuck in 15th place for the third quarter in a row, while Auckland ranked 10th.
“It’s clear that the rural and urban economies seem to be moving at different speeds across the country,” Tuffley said. “It’s regional New Zealand, particularly the food and fibre sector, that’s doing the hard work of pulling the national economy forward.”
Looking ahead, ASB expects early signs of recovery to grow across the country, supported by the Reserve Bank’s 225 basis points in OCR cuts. However, global uncertainty is likely to remain a headwind for the pace of economic improvement.
