A new Taxpayers Union Curia poll has shown New Zealand First reaching its highest recorded result while overall confidence in the direction of the country has fallen sharply.

The poll, released on Thursday 22 January 2026, showed New Zealand First rising 3.8 points to 11.9 percent, its strongest showing since the polling series began in January 2021.

Labour rose 2.8 points to 34.4 percent, while National increased 1.5 points to 31.5 percent.

The Greens dropped 3.1 points to 7.7 percent, ACT fell 1.9 points to 7.0 percent, and Te Pāti Māori slipped 0.1 points to 3.0 percent.

Among the minor parties, TOP polled 0.7 percent, NZ Outdoors and Freedom 0.6 percent, New Conservatives 0.3 percent, and Vision NZ 0.3 percent.

Compared with the December 2025 Taxpayers Union Curia poll, the combined projected seats for the centre right bloc rose 2 seats to 63, while the centre left bloc fell 2 seats to 57. On these numbers, the centre right could form a government.

Despite the gains for the coalition parties, the poll showed a sharp decline in sentiment about the country’s direction. Net country direction fell 9.8 points to minus 16.4 percent.

Only 32.6 percent of respondents said the country was heading in the right direction, down 5.7 points, while 49.0 percent said it was heading in the wrong direction, up 4.1 points.

Taxpayers Union spokesman James Ross said the timing of the poll was significant.

“This is the first poll since the Government kicked any plans for a surplus back until next decade, and people have clearly taken that to heart. Half of Kiwis now think the country is on the wrong track, compared to just a third who are happy with the direction,” Ross said.

He said New Zealand First would be encouraged by the result heading into election year.

“However, New Zealand First will definitely be happy with how they’re entering election year. This is their highest ever result in a Taxpayers Union Curia poll, at almost double their support during the last election,” Ross said.

Full results and polling methodology are available on the Taxpayers Union website.