The latest Taxpayers’ Union–Curia poll, conducted from April 30 to May 4, 2025, shows National leading with 34.6% of the decided vote, an increase of 1.1 percentage points since the last poll.

Labour follows closely at 33.2%, rising by 3.4 points.

ACT is at 9.5%, down 0.5 points.

The Green Party has declined to 9.1%, a decrease of 1.9 points. NZ First remains unchanged at 7.4%, while the Māori Party has dropped slightly to 3.9%, down 0.4 points.

Christopher Luxon is up from last month to 24.5% (+2.6 points) while Chris Hipkins is up 1.1 points to 20.0%.

Winston Peters is at 8.1% (-4.7 points). David Seymour is at 6.7% (-1.3 points) and Chlöe Swarbrick at 5.0% (+0.8 points).

33.3% (-8.5 points) say the country is headed in the right direction.

46.0% (+1.8 points) say the country is headed in the wrong direction.

This gives a net right country/wrong country of -12.7%, a drop of 10.3 points from last month.