Finance Minister Nicola Willis says New Zealanders are finally approaching the economic recovery they have been waiting for, warning a change of government could put that progress at risk.

Speaking to chrislynchmedia.com during a visit to Christchurch, Willis acknowledged the financial pressures still facing households but insisted National’s economic strategy was beginning to deliver results.

“What we can now look forward to is 220,000 new jobs being created, wages rising faster than inflation, a growing, healthy economy.”

Willis said the country had endured five difficult years, including the pandemic, rising inflation, high interest rates and international economic uncertainty. “There are many families today who are still looking at the bills, going, ‘Does my income match up?’”

She said National’s approach focused on encouraging investment, strengthening businesses and restoring discipline to Government spending.

Asked when New Zealanders would begin seeing the benefits of Treasury’s improving economic forecasts, Willis said the coming years offered the prospect of meaningful financial relief. “The nice bit is your income rising faster than the bills you have to pay, so that there’s more money left in your bank account each week.”

She said the Government’s investment incentives and moves to accelerate major developments would help stimulate economic activity. Willis pointed to National’s Investment Boost policy, which provides tax incentives for businesses purchasing equipment, machinery and technology.

“That policy alone is estimated to add one and a half percent to wage growth.” However, she cautioned that the projected improvements depended on continued financial restraint and economic reform. “My fear is we change the government and we go backwards again, and New Zealanders feel even more stretched in their household budgets.”

Willis acknowledges supermarket struggles

Willis revealed she had experienced financial hardship herself when asked about families struggling to afford groceries. “There have been times in my life where I’ve done that when I was a student and when I was on a lower income.”

She recalled conversations with families before the 2023 election that had left a lasting impression. “I remember before the last election talking to families who were saying, ‘Look, I can’t buy my kids’ swimming lessons anymore. I’m saying no to chocolate biscuits. We don’t do red meat anymore.’”

Willis said National’s income tax changes had provided some relief, with households with children benefiting by an average of more than $70 a fortnight compared with what they would otherwise have received. She criticised Labour leader Chris Hipkins for opposing those changes. “I find it rich when Chris Hipkins criticises National for families finding it difficult at the checkout when he voted against that tax relief.”

Willis also offered a candid assessment of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s performance during the televised leaders’ debate against Hipkins.

Asked whether any of Luxon’s answers had made her cringe, Willis said she had watched only the first half before catching a flight. However, she acknowledged his response to a question about whether he had ever changed his mind could have been better.

“When he said that he’d never changed his mind on anything, I thought to myself, ‘Well, you have changed your mind on things.’” Willis suggested Luxon may have interpreted the question as referring specifically to major policy decisions.

She also questioned Hipkins’ approach to changing political positions. “I didn’t like Chris Hipkins’ answer to that one, where he said that he changes his mind all the time.” Willis suggested frequent changes of position could create uncertainty about Labour’s future tax policies.

Unemployment at 5.6 percent

The Finance Minister was questioned about the difficulties facing unemployed New Zealanders, particularly young people struggling to secure their first jobs.

With unemployment at 5.6 percent, Willis acknowledged the challenges facing those searching for work. “I think it’s really tough to be a young person looking for a job in a market where unemployment is a bit higher, because it’s often young people who people are most reluctant to hire.”

She said the Government expected unemployment to begin declining as businesses increased investment and new developments progressed.

“We are forecasting that unemployment is now at its peak. It’s going to come down from here. It’s going to get better from here.” Willis pointed to major projects involving ports, housing, quarries and supermarkets as examples of developments she believed would create employment opportunities.

She also outlined National’s proposal to reduce benefit payments for some people who remain on welfare for extended periods. “Yesterday we announced a policy where we’re going to say to those people who stay out of the workforce for more than two years on a benefit and don’t take up other job opportunities that at that point we will start to reduce your benefit.”

Willis said the savings could be redirected towards education and healthcare.

Rising electricity bills concern businesses

Willis was also challenged about electricity prices following the closure of a Christchurch factory whose owner had cited rising power costs as one reason for shutting down.

She attributed pressure on electricity supplies partly to declining domestic gas production and the previous Labour Government’s restrictions on oil and gas exploration.

“The country is demanding a lot more electricity, in part because we’ve got a lot less gas for our manufacturers and our industrial production than we used to.” Willis said new renewable energy generation was essential to meeting future demand.

She pointed to solar, wind, hydro and geothermal developments being progressed under the Government’s infrastructure policies. While wholesale electricity prices had started easing, Willis acknowledged consumers were still waiting for meaningful reductions.

“What we need to see is that coming down into the retail price that you pay.”

Christchurch Hospital pressures raised

Long waiting times and staffing shortages at Christchurch Hospital’s emergency department were also raised during the interview. Willis praised healthcare workers and said the Government was recruiting approximately 2,000 nurses nationally.

“We have some incredible men and women in our health system.” She said Christchurch would benefit from expanded hospital facilities under the Government’s 10 year hospital redevelopment programme.

“That’ll take pressure off the ED, pressure off the wards, just having some more space and having the clinicians that come with that to provide the services.” Willis acknowledged that some patients and families were still experiencing significant delays but maintained improvements were being made nationally.

She also pointed to a recent trial of artificial intelligence technology designed to reduce administrative work for medical staff. According to Willis, 86 percent of participating workers reported improved wellbeing because they were spending less time completing paperwork.

Willis outlines spending priorities

Asked whether the Government’s determination to return to surplus by 2028/29 risked affecting public services, Willis said the focus was on reducing administrative costs while protecting frontline delivery.

She said National wanted fewer resources tied up in bureaucracy and more funding directed towards nurses, doctors and other essential workers. Willis pointed to the party’s proposal to reduce future overseas aid spending to help fund additional medicines through Pharmac.

“Actually, we are extremely generous on overseas aid. Let’s reduce that budget back a bit in the coming years and use those dollars to purchase the medicines that we need.”

The proposal contrasts with New Zealand First leader Winston Peters’ position on overseas assistance, which he has argued is essential to maintaining the country’s influence and security interests in the Pacific. Willis said the Government had to make choices about where taxpayer money could deliver the greatest benefits.

“So, for us, it’s about how I spend the dollar I take from you in tax, and how I make sure I’m getting the most bang for that buck.”

National faces tight election contest

Willis was also questioned about National’s polling performance and why the party was struggling to attract stronger support despite its claims of economic progress. She acknowledged that rising petrol prices and the broader cost of living crisis continued to influence public sentiment.

Willis pointed to international developments affecting oil supplies, including the conflict involving Iran, as factors contributing to higher fuel costs. She said governments often faced public frustration over economic conditions beyond their direct control.

However, Willis praised Luxon’s management of the National, ACT and New Zealand First coalition. “Chris Luxon should be given credit for how exceptionally he has managed what are ultimately three very different parties.”

She maintained National needed to increase its party vote to strengthen its position in any future coalition negotiations. “I am determined and confident that we will grow our party vote.”

Willis also questioned the opposition’s economic proposals, particularly the possibility of Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick becoming Finance Minister. She argued that National’s policies offered a more sustainable path to prosperity than introducing additional taxes.

“The parties of the opposition are essentially saying the solution to everyone’s problem is more taxes.”

Willis reflects on family sacrifices

Towards the end of the interview, Willis was asked about the personal sacrifices involved in political life and whether losing the election would allow her to spend more time with her children.

She was reminded of an emotional moment following her Budget speech when her husband and children were watching from Parliament’s public gallery.

Willis said the possibility of National’s economic programme being reversed was more upsetting than the prospect of leaving office.

“That would be more heartbreaking.” She said her family understood the demands of her political career and remained supportive of her work.

“One of the things that keeps me focused is thinking about what’s the New Zealand I want my kids to inherit. What’s the New Zealand that I want them to be pursuing their aspirations and ambitions in?”

Willis said she remained passionate about securing another term for National, believing the country’s economic prospects would improve if the coalition continued its policies.

“I passionately believe that with a second term of a National-led government, this will be a better country for them to grow up in.”