A turbulent week for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has ended with some welcome news in the latest Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll.

The poll follows Luxon’s gaffe before a Rotorua business audience and his unexpected announcement that a reelected National government would hold a referendum on MMP.

The Opportunity Party has crossed the five percent threshold.

Its rise appears to have come at Labour’s expense, with the party falling to its lowest level of support since December 2024.

Te Pāti Māori has also recorded a sharp decline and is now polling only slightly ahead of the Women’s Rights Party.

National is up 0.5 points to 31.0 percent while Labour is down 3.7 points to 27.8 percent.

The Greens are down 0.3 points to 10.1 percent, while New Zealand First is down 1.7 points to 9.1 percent. ACT is up 0.4 points to 7.3 percent, Opportunity is on 6.1 percent (+2.8 points), while Te Pāti Māori is down 1.9 points to 1.5 percent.

Converting these results to seats in the Parliament, compared to last month’s poll, National gains 1 seat to 40, while Labour drops 5 seats to 36.

The Greens are unchanged on 13, while New Zealand First drops 2 seats to 12.

ACT is unchanged on 9, while Opportunity gains 8 seats to 8. Te Pāti Māori drops 2 to 2 seats.

In terms of the Government and Opposition blocs, it is nearly a tie.  61 seats for the Government, and 59 for the opposition bloc (including Opportunity).

Luxon regains lead in Preferred PM

Christopher Luxon is ahead again in the Preferred Prime Minister score. He’s up 4.1 points to 23.2 percent, while Chris Hipkins is up 0.6 points to 19.8 percent.

Winston Peters is down 1.3 points to 10.5 percent, Chlöe Swarbrick is up 0.2 points to 4.8 percent, while David Seymour is down 1.3 points to 3.8 percent.