Labour Greens Māori bloc overtakes Government in new Roy Morgan poll

Labour and its allies have pulled ahead of the Government in the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll, with opposition parties reaching 50 percent support in August, up four points from July.

In contrast, backing for the National led coalition dropped 4.5 points to 46.5 percent, its lowest level this year. Within the Government, National fell to 29 percent, ACT remained steady on 10.5 percent, and New Zealand First slipped 2.5 points to 7 percent.

Labour led the Opposition’s rise, gaining three points to 34 percent which is its highest level in nearly a year. The Greens climbed to 13.5 percent, while the Māori Party eased back to 2.5 percent.

Roy Morgan said these results would translate to 62 seats for Labour, the Greens and the Māori Party in a 120 seat Parliament, compared to 58 seats for the Government. Labour would hold 42 seats, the Greens 17, and the Māori Party three. National would secure 36 seats, ACT 13, and New Zealand First nine.

Support for smaller parties outside Parliament stood at 3.5 percent. This included 3 percent for The Opportunities Party, while the rest was spread across groups such as the New Conservatives, NewZeal, NZ Outdoors, the Freedom Party, and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.

The Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at 83.5 in August, with 53.5 percent of voters saying the country is heading in the wrong direction and 37 percent saying it is heading in the right direction. Consumer confidence slipped by 2.7 points to 92, although it remained higher than Australia’s.

A clear generational divide is evident. Younger voters, particularly women under 50, strongly favour the Opposition. Among women aged 18 to 49, 76.5 percent back Labour, the Greens or the Māori Party, compared to just 20 percent supporting the Government. Younger men also lean to the Opposition by 51 to 41.5 percent.

Older voters favour the Government. Women aged 50 and over support National, ACT and New Zealand First by 60.5 percent to 39 percent, while men over 50 back the coalition by 66.5 percent to 31 percent.

Roy Morgan chief executive Michele Levine said “support for Labour increased 3% points to 34%, the highest level of support for the party since August 2022, when former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern still led the party.

Support for the Greens was up 2% points to 13.5% and the Maori Party dropped 1% point to 2.5%.

“There is now a clear age split emerging with the Labour led Opposition now favoured by both younger women and men for a second straight month,” Levine said. “This support is clearly driven by younger women with their support for the Opposition well over triple their support for the Government.”

Levine noted there was some positive news for the Government, with the Reserve Bank cutting the Official Cash Rate in August to 3 percent, the lowest level since 2022.

“While the latest annual growth figures show the economy has shrunk by 1.1 percent compared with a year ago, the sharp cuts to interest rates over the last year are providing renewed support to the economy,” she said.

The poll surveyed 873 New Zealanders by landline and mobile between July 28 and August 24.