The latest 1News Verian poll, conducted from 1 to 5 October 2026, puts National on 29 percent, Labour on 28 percent, the Greens on 16 percent, New Zealand First on 10 percent, ACT on 9 percent, Opportunity on 7 percent and Te Pāti Māori on 1 percent.

Compared with the previous 1News Verian poll, National is up 1 point, Labour is unchanged, the Greens are unchanged, New Zealand First is up 1 point, ACT is down 2 points and Opportunity is up from 6 to 7 percent.

The poll continues to show neither of the traditional governing blocs with enough seats to govern alone.

Under the 124 seat scenario used by 1News, National, ACT and New Zealand First would have 58 seats, while Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Te Tai Tokerau would also have 58.

Opportunity would hold 8 seats, meaning either bloc would require its support to reach a majority.

1News also modelled a 120 seat Parliament using different assumptions about the Māori electorates.

Under that scenario, the right bloc remains on 58 seats, while the left bloc falls to 54.

Opportunity would again be able to provide either side with the numbers required to govern.

In the preferred prime minister measure, Christopher Luxon is on 20 percent, up 1 point, while Chris Hipkins is on 18 percent, up 4 points.

Winston Peters is on 9 percent, up 2 points, while Chlöe Swarbrick is on 7 percent, down 1 point.

The proportion of voters who were undecided or refused to give a party preference was 11 percent, down 2 points from the previous poll.

The survey involved 1001 eligible voters, with 501 interviewed by mobile phone and 500 through online panels.

The maximum sampling error was approximately plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

The clearest takeaway is that National and Labour remain very close, the Greens remain strong at 16 percent.